A Plan B for space? On the risks of concentrating national space power in private hands
Private companies are no longer just supporting players in the US space arena; they are now key players, providing essential services like satellite launches, cargo and astronaut transportation to the International Space Station, and even lunar landers. But this reliance on private companies for critical space operations raises important questions about national security and the potential risks of concentrating power in the hands of a few. As someone who studies space and international security, I've witnessed the rapid rise of commercial space with both awe and growing concerns about the structural vulnerabilities it creates.
The US space policy has embraced commercial integration, and this shift has delivered results, from cost savings to structural dominance. However, this dominance creates leverage that could be problematic if alternatives are limited. The recent threat by Elon Musk to decommission the Dragon spacecraft, which NASA relies on for astronaut transportation, highlighted the tight link between US space access and the stability of a single company and individual.
So, is there a Plan B? A credible Plan B doesn't mean abandoning commercial partnerships; it means ensuring that alternatives exist. Historically, assured access to space has meant having more than one way to reach orbit. Today, that principle extends to crew transport, lunar logistics, satellite services, and data infrastructure. Congress is aware of this and is working to diversify providers in key programs, particularly lunar landers, to build redundancy into the system.
But redundancy is expensive, and markets alone may not guarantee diversification in these costly sectors. The US must ensure long-term funding and political commitment to maintain parallel systems and support multiple providers. The stakes will only grow as the US expands into cislunar space and looks to establish a sustained presence on the Moon. Therefore, a deliberate balance is needed: multiple providers for critical services, overlapping capabilities, and alternatives robust enough to absorb shocks. Commercial space can underpin American leadership in the new space age, but only if access to orbit, and beyond, never rests on a single, indispensable company.
